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Instance Loot Seed
#1
The question is "How is the loot that drops in MC determined?"

It seems to me that a lot of very specific loot for a limited set of classes drops in our MC runs. Some classes are almost completely decked out in tier 1 gear and close to DE epic loot. Others are making slower progress. Is this purely by chance?

There is a theory that the raid leader, master looter, or first person in the instance (etc... many theories here) seeds the loot table. Thus, if it is the same person everytime, then you get the same loot drops. ((<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://forums.curse-gaming.com/archive/index.php/t-8993.html">http://forums.curse-gaming.com/archive/ ... -8993.html</a><!-- m -->))

Then, again Blizzard has stated that the drops are purely random ((<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.goblinworkshop.com/BlizzCon/2005/raid-panel.html">http://www.goblinworkshop.com/BlizzCon/ ... panel.html</a><!-- m -->)).

Ok, now my two cents. Anyone who knows anything about Computer Science knows that there is no such thing as a purely random number generator. All are seeded in some fashion, and if the seed is the same, you get the same sequence of random numbers. In addition, there are a finite number of numbers in the random sequence, which will repeat if enough are generated. Also, handling this random number generation is a common source of errors in programs that require it.

I found this interesting post explaining the process in WoW in a little more detail, for those who have an algorithmic bent ((<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.files.bz/files/397/Blizzard%20Documents/Microsoft%20Word%20-%20Blizzard.pdf">http://www.files.bz/files/397/Blizzard% ... izzard.pdf</a><!-- m -->)).

In conclusion, it seems plausible to me that if the random number seeding works as in the preceeding file, that you would get a chance for repeated loot tables based upon start time and character initiating the instance. As this file says, globally, the loot drops look random. For a given run on a given night that is repeated over some time, maybe not.

Other opinions?

-Jaba
Professor of Lootology
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#2
Yeah this is a commonly posted "theory" but it doesn't really hold. First, Kosath and I have experimented with this since we were running ZG first last Summer/Fall and it seemed to make no difference. We changed the raid leader and start time and got much of the same loot, or we did everything the same and got all different loot. :Confusedhrugs::

Also, you can't really draw statistical conclusions from the ultimately small sample size we have so far. Some of these bosses we've only killed a few times to date. If we'd killed each of them 100 or more times we could judge, perhaps, whether something was off. Perhaps not even then. No raid has ever posted conclusively about this issue whether with an explanation or a solution.

That said, we have had different people form this raid a few times and also formed it and zoned in at different times on many occasions. Not to test this but because that's just the way things go. While we have had fewer drops of some classes' sets we've seen the majority of the available items in the zone from those bosses that we've killed often enough to reasonably expect such.

Obviously Shazzrah on to Domo we've only done about 5 times so far, so we're really only talking up to Garr or Geddon much more than that.

The best solution is to be patient, have fun, and not worry too much about loot. Be glad for your fellow Tribemates when they win something and take pride in our victories more than our items. I say this as someone who has won two (2) pieces of Prophecy in the past 8 months of doing MC, first with the Rottens and now with the Tribe. I won the Gloves and Crown of Prophecy in that time and received the Bracers and Belt through other means.

So I'm not just blowing smoke here - I know what folks are feeling. I'd like my set too. : )

Good luck all,
Tae
"She is a soothsayer. She’s a mystic. She is a witch doctor, able to see into people’s hearts and minds. She’s also touched by the elements." -Naomie Harris
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#3
Agreed, Tae. Definite objective to have fun and cheer on tribemates.

Being the curious sort, I had to dig a little deeper. I went through all our loot listings in MC and calculated the statistics. Though on the face of it there does seem to be substantial variation in drop rates among the classes, the statistics say that there is no significant variation from a uniform distribution (i.e. everything equally likely).

For those who want to know, this was determined from z-test of means of total drops by class, drops from trash mobs, and drops from Magmadar and Garr (the only bosses we had a big enough sample on). I also did a chi-square dist against a uniform distribution for total and trash drops. No significant difference.

Sorry I brought it up, but now we know that statistically speaking there are no differences in the drop rates for different classes for our MC runs.

-Jaba
Professor of Lootology

PS: You priests definitely need a little MC love.
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#4
Thanks Jaba, I hadn't bothered to do any stats tests on it, that's very useful to hear. Keep up the good work! To be fair, we've regardless of set pieces actually gotten a rather nice distribution of the non-set loot, individual items of which are usually rarer from a given boss. Only a handful of items that we haven't seen at all so far, and most of the weapon drops for example we have seen at least twice.

Tae

Edit: I quote my engineer roommate Kosath as responding, "Oh hell yeah, if someone wants to post math go right ahead!" Heh heh.
"She is a soothsayer. She’s a mystic. She is a witch doctor, able to see into people’s hearts and minds. She’s also touched by the elements." -Naomie Harris
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#5
5 x 2 = 10!

Jaba, I'd love to see the results you came up with. If anything, I'd love to see just a total count of what's dropped and how many times, and I'm too lazy to do it myself!

It's funny how I can lothe statistics as a field of education so much, yet be so darned interested in statistical numbers. :roll:
[Image: 85443.png][Image: 85444.png]
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#6
While it is listed by player and not by item, don't forget:

Loot List by Eveline

Most I'm sure are aware of it already, but thought it was worth a link.

Tae
"She is a soothsayer. She’s a mystic. She is a witch doctor, able to see into people’s hearts and minds. She’s also touched by the elements." -Naomie Harris
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#7
But it requires effort to add all that stuff up!

Effort!
[Image: 85443.png][Image: 85444.png]
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#8
((I think your experiments are very interesting, Jabadue!

Just to be accurate, I'd like to add that there has been one pair of Nightslayer Gloves, and one pair of Felheart Gloves that were disenchanted so far.

*big hugs* ))
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#9
Here is the data as of 7/19 through Geddon. Right now, the only data sets large enough to test are total, Magmadar, Garr, and Trash mobs.

For Lucifron, I don't know if drop rates are supposed to be the same for glove and boots, so I did not test. Same for Gehennas.

One caveat: I may have miscounted here and there, but should mostly be correct.

Total Lucifron Magmadar Gehennas Garr Geddon
Giantstalker 13 2 3 2
Earthfury 21 3 3 3 2
Cenarion 24 5 4 2 5
Prophecy 15 2 1 2
Arcanist 16 3 4 2 2
Felheart 29 6 5 3 1
Might 21 4 4 2
Nightslayer 27 5 3 9 4

Trash
Giantstalker 4
Earthfury 3
Cenarion 3
Prophecy 5
Arcanist 5
Felheart 9
Might 4
Nightslayer 9

The data may look a little better in the attached jpeg. Website would not allow me to post a pdf or text file.

Jaba
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